SPC Jan 23, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the
Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft
affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached
from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is
forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into
AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8,
this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains.
However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut
off from the primary storm track to the north.

Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for
any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period,
Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving
into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist
along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over
parts of Texas.

Read more