Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time.