SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy.
