SPC Jan 25, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may
support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the
advancing cold core upper low.

Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts
of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing
warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation
may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday.
While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and
buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around
10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak
buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior
outlook for additional information.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/

...Discussion...
Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority
of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and
northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level
temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few
lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into
evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to
scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east
Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could
produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak
buoyancy.

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