SPC Jan 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert
Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level
moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the
southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface
dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern
Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop
across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across
much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases
ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing
instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of
the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday
night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop
in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into
Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains.
Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be
possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower
than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to
overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will
be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the
southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday.

...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...
The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains
on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front
is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms
will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is
forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be
unlikely.

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