Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.