SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025