Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period.