SPC Jan 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level
low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross
the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior
to the start of the Day 5 period.

While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold
front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it
appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best,
limiting overall severe potential.

After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida
Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected.  

Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a
low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder
of the period.  While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of
slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S.
troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high
pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe
potential through the end of the period.

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