SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025