SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025