SPC Feb 8, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND
southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected
to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the
Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In
response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to
rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys,
moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures
cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be
augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale
lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and
buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of
lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms
is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over
the Middle and Upper OH Valley. 

Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+
kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could
result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is
expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts,
with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025

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