SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025