SPC Feb 9, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave
troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal
flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible
height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of
high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering
much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in
place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast
States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and
the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression
of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front
likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into
South TX by 12Z Monday.

...Arklatex into the Mid-South...
Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the
synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass
supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm
nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The
warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at
least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and
weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms
this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the
overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025

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