SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025