SPC Feb 10, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight.

...TX/OK/AR...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off
the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress
quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the
Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by
tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern
Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still
offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead
to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface
dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by
tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm
mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection
across much of the TX Coastal Plain.

Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in
corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR
about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here,
aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the
low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong
low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated
buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and
western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to
a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region
throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also
help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level
temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting
buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the
Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the
severe potential low throughout the period.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025

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