SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025