SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025