SPC Feb 12, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south
Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through
tonight.

...TX into LA...
Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas
into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into
south-central LA.  Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through
the base of a larger scale trough over western North America.  This
mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z
and east TX by mid morning tomorrow.  A corresponding
intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late
tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley
towards 12/12z.  Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg
C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample
moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight.  Model
guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near
the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage.  A
few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an
isolated risk for hail/wind.  

Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located
over the central Gulf Coast this evening.  The gradual diminishing
of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote
continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf
Coast into central AL.  Have removed low-severe probabilities to
account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening
in the short term.

..Smith.. 02/12/2025

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