SPC Feb 12, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary
severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered
damaging gusts.

...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while
the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the
southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing
to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country
through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture
has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of
the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of
the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm
front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front
extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal
plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F
isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well.

General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward
throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward.
Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the
airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with
dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic
environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the
front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect
open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon
once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer
shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of
all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal
convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which
increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the
increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given
the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and
overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of
these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding
afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy.
However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e
advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to
severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe
risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will
remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS
tornadoes as well.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025

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