SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast through late tonight from southeast Louisiana through Alabama into western Georgia. The primary hazard will be the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes this evening into late tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... Early evening surface analysis places a slow northward-moving warm front over south-central AL. Only minor northward progress is expected through late tonight into east-central AL and adjacent parts of far western GA, which is in agreement with short-term model guidance. A very moist airmass over the northern Gulf of America and coastal plain (south of the warm front) will maintain a fetch of weakly to moderately buoyant air for thunderstorm activity through tonight in the warm sector. The Slidell, LA 00 UTC raob showed 1700 J/kg MLCAPE whereas only 500 J/kg MUCAPE was sampled atop a cool/stable layer at Birmingham, AL. The main severe risk will continue to be supercells capable of tornadoes (possibly strong due to enlarged hodographs) across the Enhanced Risk area and shifting west to east through this evening into the overnight. Damaging gusts will also focus with any bowing line segments or embedded supercells that get engulfed in the eastward shifting band. Farther north, the airmass due to the residual wedge front over northern GA/north-central AL will be slow to modify. As a result, have annotated a small southward shift of tornado/wind probabilities and associated the categorical outlook. ..Smith.. 02/13/2025