SPC Feb 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast through late tonight from
southeast Louisiana through Alabama into western Georgia.  The
primary hazard will be the potential for a couple of strong
tornadoes this evening into late tonight.

...Central Gulf Coast states into GA...
Early evening surface analysis places a slow northward-moving warm
front over south-central AL.  Only minor northward progress is
expected through late tonight into east-central AL and adjacent
parts of far western GA, which is in agreement with short-term model
guidance.  A very moist airmass over the northern Gulf of America
and coastal plain (south of the warm front) will maintain a fetch of
weakly to moderately buoyant air for thunderstorm activity through
tonight in the warm sector.  The Slidell, LA 00 UTC raob showed 1700
J/kg MLCAPE whereas only 500 J/kg MUCAPE was sampled atop a
cool/stable layer at Birmingham, AL.  The main severe risk will
continue to be supercells capable of tornadoes (possibly strong due
to enlarged hodographs) across the Enhanced Risk area and shifting
west to east through this evening into the overnight.  Damaging
gusts will also focus with any bowing line segments or embedded
supercells that get engulfed in the eastward shifting band.  Farther
north, the airmass due to the residual wedge front over northern
GA/north-central AL will be slow to modify.  As a result, have
annotated a small southward shift of tornado/wind probabilities and
associated the categorical outlook.

..Smith.. 02/13/2025

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