SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025