SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025