SPC Feb 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the West.  This feature will amplify through late tonight as a
100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into
northern Sonora and Chihuahua.  A belt of strong southwesterly
mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the
southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley.  The
gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest
Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate
shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but
mainly into the overnight.  

Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but
evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of
continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South.  As
a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary
layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. 
Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit
overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps
locally sub severe) with the strongest storms.

..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025

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