SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025