SPC Feb 15, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much
of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a
few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late
afternoon through the overnight hours.

...Discussion...

Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO
River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX
early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into
the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours.
Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much
of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected
across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will
induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track
into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the
OH during the overnight hours.

LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley
during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is
currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just
now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air
can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in
nature, and likely sub-severe.

Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX
into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization
should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support
potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface
low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across
this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are
expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western
TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and
tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind
fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for
strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage
as the boundary surges southeast.

During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of
concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS
into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat
higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region
ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be
expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong
tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025

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