SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts are possible Sunday morning, particularly across portions of the Southeast but possibly as far north as the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A vigorous/fast-moving short-wave trough -- embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft -- will move quickly eastward across the eastern quarter of the U.S. Sunday. As this feature reaches the Atlantic Coast/New England by evening, lower-amplitude/westerly flow will evolve across much of the rest of the country. At the surface, sharp cold front should extend from an eastern Ohio low, southward roughly along the Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. This front will move steadily eastward/southeastward, and should clear the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast during the afternoon. During the evening and overnight, the occluding/parent low is forecast to shift across New England, while the trailing front moves eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of America through Sunday morning. In the wake of this front, Arctic air will gradually spread southeastward across the Plains/Midwest, and eventually the Northeast. ...Southeastern U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region... A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period near the advancing cold front. The greatest coverage of lightning is expected from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Gulf Coast, where a well-organized squall line should be ongoing from central Georgia to the Florida Panhandle. Modest CAPE across this part of the area will support deeper updrafts, and thus greater potential for some downward transport of high-momentum flow aloft. Risk for subsequent strong-to-severe gusts at the surface appears sufficient to warrant an upgrade to SLGT risk across southern Georgia, northern Florida, and central and eastern parts of the Florida Panhandle. Storms should reach/clear the South Carolina and Georgia coasts around midday, ending the risk over all but northern Florida, where wind risk should gradually diminish as weakening convection shifts southward through the afternoon. Farther north, weaker instability will limit convective intensity/depth, with lightning expected to be generally more isolated/sporadic with northward extent. Still, with very strong flow aloft preceding the upper trough, stronger, fast-moving convective elements may still produce gusty winds, and thus potential for minor damage locally as far north as the Chesapeake/Delmarva area until the primary band of storms moves offshore through mid afternoon. ..Goss.. 02/15/2025
