SPC Feb 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong wind gusts are possible Sunday morning, particularly
across portions of the Southeast but possibly as far north as the
Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous/fast-moving short-wave trough -- embedded in broader
cyclonic flow aloft -- will move quickly eastward across the eastern
quarter of the U.S. Sunday.  As this feature reaches the Atlantic
Coast/New England by evening, lower-amplitude/westerly flow will
evolve across much of the rest of the country.

At the surface, sharp cold front should extend from an eastern Ohio
low, southward roughly along the Appalachians to the Florida
Panhandle.  This front will move steadily eastward/southeastward,
and should clear the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast during the
afternoon.  During the evening and overnight, the occluding/parent
low is forecast to shift across New England, while the trailing
front moves eastward across the western Atlantic and southward
across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of America through Sunday
morning.  In the wake of this front, Arctic air will gradually
spread southeastward across the Plains/Midwest, and eventually the
Northeast.

...Southeastern U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region...
A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period near the advancing cold front.  The greatest
coverage of lightning is expected from the southern Appalachians to
the Florida Gulf Coast, where a well-organized squall line should be
ongoing from central Georgia to the Florida Panhandle.  Modest CAPE
across this part of the area will support deeper updrafts, and thus
greater potential for some downward transport of high-momentum flow
aloft.  Risk for subsequent strong-to-severe gusts at the surface
appears sufficient to warrant an upgrade to SLGT risk across
southern Georgia, northern Florida, and central and eastern parts of
the Florida Panhandle.  Storms should reach/clear the South Carolina
and Georgia coasts around midday, ending the risk over all but
northern Florida, where wind risk should gradually diminish as
weakening convection shifts southward through the afternoon.

Farther north, weaker instability will limit convective
intensity/depth, with lightning expected to be generally more
isolated/sporadic with northward extent.  Still, with very strong
flow aloft preceding the upper trough, stronger, fast-moving
convective elements may still produce gusty winds, and thus
potential for minor damage locally as far north as the
Chesapeake/Delmarva area until the primary band of storms moves
offshore through mid afternoon.

..Goss.. 02/15/2025

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