SPC Feb 16, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from
eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through
the afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC...
A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the
Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening
before evolving into a mid-level low.  An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb
jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to
the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon.  A broken low-topped
squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and
northeast SC.  Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the
southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of
the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures
have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints.  Around
250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support
a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for
ascent.  Stronger portions within the broken convective line will
aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around
0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts
(55-70 mph).  The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of
the coast later this afternoon.

...North FL...
The southern portion of the convective band will continue to
gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon.  The
12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb
which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal
heating.  An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary
threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later
this afternoon.

..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025

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