SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025