SPC MD 111

MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwestern through north central
Virginia and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161755Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany showers
spreading east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, across the Mid Atlantic,
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading edge of mid-level forcing for
ascent and cooling (generally in the 850-500 mb layer) spreading
across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains,
insolation is contributing to modest steepening of lapse rates and
destabilization sufficient for low-topped convective development. 
As this spreads east-northeastward toward the coastal plain through
3-5 PM EDT, it remains unclear whether this will deepen through
sufficiently cold layers aloft to support an appreciable risk for
thunderstorms.

However, to the south of a large and still deepening cyclone,
activity is embedded within strong southwesterly to westerly
deep-layer mean wind fields, which still appears to include 50-60 kt
in the lowest 3 km AGL.  Although a relatively cool and moist
near-surface environment may not be particularly efficient
contributing to the downward mixing of momentum, heavier
precipitation in the stronger convection may still support
occasional potentially damaging gusts reaching the surface.

..Kerr/Smith.. 02/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   39307913 39667718 38727610 36117916 35598103 35918088
            36978026 39307913 

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