SPC Feb 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS
today.

...Discussion...
A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow
temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold
front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in
the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along
the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before
quickly moving into the coastal waters.

Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of
enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the
Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will
remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and
surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with
moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally
driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest
into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening
trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this
region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of
thunder areas.

..Thornton.. 02/17/2025

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