SPC Feb 19, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight.

...20Z Update...
A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the
western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening
trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated
coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder
probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge
of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline
later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited
buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse.

..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of
the Rockies.  Visible-satellite and lightning data show a
southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over
the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front
pushing southeast.  This thunderstorm activity will approach the
west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon.  12 UTC initialized
model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this
activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and
approaches the coast.  While low/deep-layer flow appears
conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the
coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall
threat for damaging gusts.

Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. 
Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across
the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great
Basin.

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