Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed.