SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. At least some risk of hail may eventually develop. ...Synopsis... A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure over the Southeast. As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600 mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms. Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out for this type of regime. ..Jewell.. 02/20/2025