SPC Feb 20, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas
Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday.
At least some risk of hail may eventually develop.

...Synopsis...
A general northwest flow regime will remain from the northern Plains
into the Mid Atlantic, with a southern-stream westerly flow regime
from the southern Plains into the Southeast. A compact upper low is
forecast to move from AZ/NM across the southern Plains, providing
cooling aloft.  Ahead of this feature, southerly winds around 850 mb
will bring moisture northward in an elevated sense, while the
surface air mass remains cool/stable over land due to high pressure
over the Southeast.

As the upper feature interacts with the midlevel moisture plume from
the western Gulf into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys, elevated
MUCAPE over 500 J/kg may develop, supporting scattered
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings reveal steep lapse rates above 600
mb, with enough effective shear to sustain a few strong storms.
Given cold boundary-layer temperatures, at least small hail appears
likely. Isolated hail over 1.00" cannot be ruled out, though
confidence is not great enough to introduce a risk area this far out
for this type of regime.

..Jewell.. 02/20/2025

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