Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time.
