SPC Feb 20, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association
with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region.

After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue,
thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An
upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains
on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to
the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development
over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly
low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return
ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will
likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the
Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could
become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward
extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer
time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time.

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