Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Early morning surface analysis places the center of an expansive area of high pressure over MO. This area of high pressure (and its associated continental arctic airmass) is gradually expected to shift eastward throughout the day as shortwave trough progresses across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This evolution will maintain low-level offshore trajectories, with the resulting stable conditions precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is just off the South Texas coast, where surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of a second shortwave trough forecast to move southward through AZ. Increasing low-level moisture convergence is anticipated near this low, with warm-air advection increasing throughout its eastern periphery as well. However, this low is expected to remain well offshore, keeping any deep convection over the western Gulf. Warm temperatures aloft will preclude thunderstorms within any warm-air advection showers that do make it ashore. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/21/2025
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