SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period.