Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025
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