SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025