SPC Feb 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far
southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief
tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible
across parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...01z Update...

Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific
Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance
inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR
and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave.
Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core,
with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off
the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been
observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat
favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down.
Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast
to account for this scenario, primarily this evening.

Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the
central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this
feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak
convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the
possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are
limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain
a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado.

..Darrow.. 02/25/2025

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