SPC Feb 25, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central
Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well.
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream,
with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great
Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies,
downstream of a cyclone moving into southern British Columbia. The
lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day,
moving off the Northeast coast this evening. The second wave is also
forecast to continue eastward (perhaps slightly east-southeastward),
moving through the northern Plains this evening and into the Upper
Midwest by early tomorrow morning. Another shortwave trough will
follow quickly behind this second wave, progressing southeastward
from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and UT.  

At the surface, a low will move across the northern/central Plains
just ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough moving
across the northern Plains. Strong forcing for ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few
thunderstorms near this surface low as it moves over the Dakotas
this afternoon and evening. A similar scenario is anticipated
farther south, where some isolated thunderstorms are possible this
in the vicinity of a weak secondary surface low over central KS.
Continued mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment
ahead of this wave will contribute to a persisting potential for
isolated thunderstorms from the Mid MO Valley into southern
WI/northern IL late tonight/early tomorrow.

Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur across western CO where
modest buoyancy could develop amid strong boundary-layer mixing and
cooling mid-level temperatures. Persistent large-scale forcing for
ascent within this environment could support a few thunderstorm
during the afternoon and evening.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/25/2025

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