MD 0119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OREGON…SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Areas affected...Northern Oregon...Southern Washington
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250043Z - 250245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for a few gusts, some of which could be severe,
over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing, with two more
organized bands noted near the Portland Metro and across the
Columbia Gorge. Though thermal profiles are poor, strong upper level
forcing from a mid-level jet max is overspreading the region amid
some MLCAPE around 100-240 J/kg. The increase in winds aloft can be
noted in the VAD from RTX (Portland, OR), where speeds up to 50-60
kts are observed in the bottom 3 km. A few gusts around 50 mph were
observed earlier in reporting sites near the Oregon coast. Steep low
to mid-level lapse rates are also in place regionally, with forecast
soundings from the NAM/RAP suggesting profiles are deeply mixed.
This will allow for potential for even low topped showers to mix
down higher momentum gusts at times, some of which may approach
severe limits. Given the rapid loss of daytime heating and poor
thermal environment, this is expected to remain localized and a
watch is unlikely to be needed.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...
LAT...LON 45522382 46112285 46352052 46991884 46871803 46621746
46201733 45731752 45311821 45071927 44862103 44582318
45522382
