SPC Feb 26, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within
the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the
other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains
shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day,
moving through the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Another
shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of this wave,
moving through Upper MS Valley late tonight/early tomorrow.
Evolution of these two waves will help sharpen the cyclonic flow
aloft over much of the Upper Great Lakes region and vicinity. 

At the surface, a low attendant to the central Plains shortwave
trough was recently analyzed over central IA. A cold front extends
southwestward from this low across southeast KS and western OK to
another low over northwest TX. The central IA surface low is
forecast to track eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave,
likely ending the period in the northern Lake Erie vicinity. As this
low moves eastward, the attendant cold front will progress
eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected along this front as it moves eastward. 

A few isolated thunderstorms also possible across northeast TX and
the Arklatex late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here, a few
elevated storms are possible behind the surface front, amid modest
low/mid-level moistening and convergence along the 850-mb front.  

...Mid-South into the Middle OH Valley...
Limited moisture return is anticipated ahead of the cold front
mentioned in the synopsis, but mid 50s dewpoints could be in place
from southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN prior to the
passage of the cold front. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
surface temperatures in the upper 60s will combine with this limited
low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than
500 J/kg). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front
interacts with this modest buoyancy, beginning around 21Z across the
southeast MO vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
along the front as it moves across the OH Valley, with the
increasing large-scale ascent aiding the development of deep
convection into areas where surface dewpoints are lower and buoyancy
is scant. Deep-layer flow is strong enough to support some updraft
organization, but the limited buoyancy is expected to keep updraft
duration too short for much organization. As such, the
severe-weather potential is low.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2025

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