Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday.
