SPC Mar 1, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong
cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z
Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+
kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of
an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to
track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes
region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of
intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields.  This probably will
include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and
large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving
warm sector.  

With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew
points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day
Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient
destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing
lines and supercells.  However, uncertainties linger, perhaps
including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover,
limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with
modest lapse rates could impede destabilization.  Variability among
the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic
and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent
and location of stronger convective development.

In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment
centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will
become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of
producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday
into Tuesday night.  This threat may wane by late Tuesday night
across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf
moisture return becomes cut off.  However, an influx of low-level
moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong
to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold
front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on
Wednesday.

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