SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025